• Predictive Modeling and Forecasting for the Transmission and Risk of West Nile Virus



    主講人:朱懷平  加拿大約克大學教授




    地點:騰訊會議 478 127 447




    主講人介紹:朱懷平,加拿大約克大學數學和統計系教授,約克大學應用數學首席教授,并行計算與模擬實驗室和疾病建模中心主任。長期從事動力系統分支理論及其應用、希爾伯特第十六問題、種群生態學與傳染病學的數學建模和應用分析研究、氣候變化模擬和影響、以及蚊蟲疾病的實時預報和防控等研究工作。在數學及生物數學的國際頂級或高水平期刊上累計發表文章100多篇,在國際著名的微分方程雜志發表了單篇長達112頁論文。多次組織舉辦了動力系統分支理論以及應用,生物數學,氣候變化以及影響等學術會議,并先后在重要國際會議做特邀報告20余次。作為項目負責人獲得加拿大國家工程和自然科學基金會  (NSERC),國家創新基金 (CFI),加拿大健康研究院(CIHR),  加拿大公共衛生部(PHAC),以及安大略省衛生部、環境部、科技部等部委的資助。2007年曾獲安大略省青年科學研究獎。


    內容介紹:Weather conditions, such as daily average temperature and precipitation, not  only affect the abundance and the biting behavior of Culex mosquitoes but also  determine the outbreak and spread of West Nile virus (WNV). Early warning  capacity for alerting public health to emerging and re-emerging mosquito-borne  diseases is critical for effective public health response. In this talk, I will  present a recent study of integrating a statistical model for Culex mosquito  abundance with a compartmental model for the tran**ission of WNV. In this study,  we incorporated both temperature and precipitation into the models to reflect  their impact on the abundance of vector mosquitoes, biting behavior, and  tran**ission of the virus. The Culex mosquito trap counts from the mosquito  surveillance program and the reported human cases of WNV are used to calibrate  the model. I will show simulation results showing a satisfactory match with the  data. The predictive models together with the weekly weather forecasting of  temperature and precipitation allow us to predict the risk of WNV in the study  area weekly. The simulations from the model suggest that variation in weather  patterns can result in different endemic situations in the region, while the  daily average temperature plays a more important role than precipitation in the  tran**ission of WNV. If time permits, I will discuss the challenges of  bifurcations and dynamics of models for the tran**ission of WNV.